Analysis: US aid will boost Ukraine, but doubts remain over supplies in 2025 | WKZO | Everything Kalamazoo

By Patricia Zengerle and Humeyra Pamuk

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Biden administration wants to start moving weapons and equipment to Ukraine within days of the expected passage this week of legislation that includes $60 billion in military aid to Kiev, a long-delayed lifeline for the embattled country .

The aid would arrive much later than Ukraine – which is running out of ammunition and reeling from a renewed Russian attack – had hoped, and analysts warn there is no guarantee more will arrive.

But officials and experts agree that the artillery rounds, precision-guided missiles and air defenses will change the military outlook for Ukraine.

“With the boost that will come from military aid, both practically and psychologically, the Ukrainians are fully capable of holding their own until 2024 and breaking Putin’s arrogant view that time is on his side,” said CIA Director William Burns Thursday at the Bush conference. Center Forum on Leadership in Dallas.

Munitions, interceptors for air defense systems and long-range weapons could start moving “within days” once the bills become law, a US official said.

“There will be no delays or bottlenecks on the US side,” the official said.

More than two years after Russia’s large-scale invasion, Ukraine has lost territory in the eastern part of the country and Russia has stepped up its bombing of towns and villages behind the front lines, amid a slowdown in Western military aid.

Aid to Ukraine was suspended for months over objections from far-right Republican lawmakers in the US House of Representatives.

On Saturday, the House of Representatives approved a $95 billion legislative package that provides security aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. It now heads to the Senate and passage is expected this week, paving the way for President Joe Biden to sign it into law.

Over the weekend, Zelenskiy welcomed the progress of the aid package in the House of Representatives, repeatedly urging lawmakers to quickly pass the bill in the Senate so that arms transfers can happen quickly.

The Biden administration is finalizing its next aid package for Ukraine so it can announce the new tranche of aid soon after the bill becomes law to address Ukraine’s urgent battlefield needs, an official said the White House.

COSTLY DELAY

The delay in approving new supplies has cost Kiev dearly.

“The aid comes far too late, as equipment shortages led to Ukraine losing the initiative in October 2023,” said Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.

Since October, Ukraine has lost 583 square kilometers of territory to Russian forces, largely due to a lack of artillery, Stepanenko said, adding that Russia has had time to prepare for offensive operations planned in late spring or early summer are expected.

But the Ukrainian military should be able to use the munitions – mainly ATACMS missiles, air defense interceptors and artillery shells – “almost immediately,” said retired Vice Adm. Robert Murrett of Syracuse University’s Institute for Security Policy and Law.

Zelenskiy has requested ATACMS, long-range guided missiles that Ukraine could use to hit targets such as Russian command posts and weapons depots in Crimea.

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner told CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that military equipment, including the longer-range ATACMS, “should be on its way by the end of the week,” provided the Senate passes the legislation also approves.

Ukraine should also receive more missiles for the Patriot air defense system, which has proven effective against missile and drone attacks.

Riki Ellison, founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, said U.S. weapons manufacturers have ramped up production of missiles for the Patriot defense systems to meet demand and should be ready to ship missiles quickly.

POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY

However, uncertainties await Ukraine after 2024.

These include the possible re-election of former US President Donald Trump, who has expressed skepticism about large amounts of aid to Ukraine and questioned how quickly the US and European defense industries can ramp up weapons production.

Trump won the Republican nomination in March and will face Biden, a Democrat, in the presidential election on November 5. The former president and hardline Republicans in Congress oppose further aid to Ukraine, with the possible exception of a loan.

“Ukraine must use 2024 to rebuild its forces for the long war,” Bergman said. “Europe’s goal should be to position itself to potentially fill a future gap left by the United States if another addition is not made.”

If the US package is signed into law, it could have a powerful signaling effect not only in terms of Ukrainian morale, but also for the assistance of other US allies, said Jeffrey Pryce, an international lawyer and senior fellow at the Institute for foreign policy from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced. International studies.

“If America leads, other countries will feel much more comfortable replenishing those supplies,” Pryce said.

(Reporting by Humeyra Pamuk, Patricia Zengerle, Raphael Satter, Idrees Ali, Andrea Shalal, Jonathan Landay, Steve Holland and Mike Stone; Writing by Humeyra Pamuk; Editing by Don Durfee)