India-male ties face a lot of turbulence; The ball is in Muizzu’s court, says expert

New Delhi:The relationship between India and Maldives is likely to face a lot of turbulence. Moreover, Muizzu, the current leader of the Maldives, is expected to strengthen ties with China as there are no longer legal restrictions. This situation is likely to be a challenge for India, Harsh V Pant, vice president for studies at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, told ETV Bharat.

This comes as Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s party won Sunday’s elections in a landslide. According to sources, the People’s National Congress (PNC) won 70 out of 93 seats to take full control of parliament, beating the main opposition party, the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), led by former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who is seen as pro-India. only 15 seats this time against 65 in the previous Parliament.

The recent election victory of the Pro-China party in the Maldives is likely to have a significant impact on India-Maldives relations, said an expert in the field Harsh V Pant. He warns that there could be a lot of turbulence ahead as President Muizzu is expected to view this victory as an endorsement of his policy, which is known to be biased towards India. Without legal restrictions, he will bring the country closer to China, which could create a challenging situation for India and the Maldives.

“It is therefore important that President Muizzu recognizes the importance of India-Maldives relations and manages them effectively. Failure to do so could have significant consequences for the Maldives and negatively impact bilateral ties between India and Maldives,” Pant added.

In the current scenario, the future of India-Maldives relations depends on the decisions of President Muizzu. His past behavior suggests that he may continue to bring the Maldives closer to China, which could lead to significant turbulence in bilateral relations. It is critical for Muizzu to understand the importance of India-Maldives relations and manage them in a balanced manner. An anti-India policy or rhetoric could prove costly not only for the bilateral relationship but also for the Maldives as it is not a good idea for any country to put its eggs completely in one basket, namely; especially the Chinese basket, the expert explained.

With China being the beneficiary, it is imperative for Muizzu to recognize the importance of India-Maldives relations and take appropriate steps to balance its foreign policy assumptions. Ultimately, the ball is in Muizzu’s court and he must decide how to shape the future of this relationship, Pant said.

The recent elections in the Maldives took place amid the already strained relationship between the Maldives and India. Since President Muizzu came to power, his anti-India campaign during last year’s presidential elections has caused serious concerns for India. Muizzu has even forced India to withdraw its military personnel operating three aviation platforms in the Maldives before May this year. To add to this, Muizzu went against traditional policy and visited China in January this year where he met top Chinese leaders including President Xi Jinping. This visit resulted in the signing of a defense cooperation agreement and the development of several other infrastructure

The diplomatic tussle between the two countries took an ugly turn after a few Maldivian politicians made derogatory comments against India and Prime Minister Modi after his visit to Lakshadweep in January 2024. Prime Minister Modi’s visit was seen as an attempt to boost tourism in the archipelago at the expense of costs. of the Maldives.

It is important to note that Maldives is India’s most important maritime neighbor in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and has a special place in initiatives such as SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and the Neighborhood First Policy from India.

The impact of the strained relations between India and the Maldives is not just limited to diplomatic ties but also extends to tourism diplomacy. The Maldives, once a popular destination for Indian tourists, has seen a significant decline in the number of Indian visitors, with India now ranked sixth in the top 10 markets for Maldives tourism. This is in contrast to China, which has emerged as the main market for tourism in the Maldives. This shift in tourism statistics underlines the need for both countries to work towards improving their bilateral relations. It is critical that the Maldives recognize the importance of India-Maldives ties and balance their foreign policy assumptions to avoid negative impacts on bilateral relations. A balanced approach would not only benefit both countries but also ensure the prosperity of the Maldives tourism sector.

The Maldives Ministry of Tourism recently released its monthly report on tourist arrivals. According to the report, as many as 56,208 Indian tourists visited the Maldives between January and March 2023. This number dropped to 34,847 in January-March 2024. Meanwhile, 17,691 tourists from China visited the Maldives during January-March 2023. In January, it rose to 67,399 . -March 2024.

Meanwhile, China congratulated the Maldives on their victory and said on Monday it would seek to strengthen ties with the Maldives. “China is willing to work with the Maldives to maintain traditional friendship (and) expand exchanges and cooperation in various fields,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said.

“Beijing aimed to continuously deepen the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between China and the Maldives and accelerate the building of a community with a shared future for China and the Maldives and bring better benefit to the people belonging to two countries,” Wenbin said during a regular press conference. briefing “We congratulate the Maldives on successfully holding their parliamentary elections and fully respect the choice made by the Maldivian people,” Wang said.

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