US military strategy is being tested as the war between Iran and Israel emerges from the shadows

Washington (Reuters) – The U.S. military’s success in helping Israel stop a massive wave of Iranian missiles and drones last weekend could indicate that Washington is well prepared militarily for what comes next if Iran and Israel transition from shadow warfare to direct confrontation.

But current and former U.S. officials say U.S. forces are not positioned for a major, sustained conflict in the Middle East and that the Pentagon may have to revise assumptions about military needs in the region if the crisis worsens.

“I don’t think we have all the forces that we would want to support Israel if there were a direct war between them and Iran,” said Michael Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East in the Trump administration .

Although Tehran has indicated it has no plans to retaliate for an apparent Israeli attack on Friday, the tit-for-tat attacks have raised fears of an unpredictable regional war that the United States has tried to prevent. In the months since an attack by Hamas militants on Israel sparked a war in Gaza that has sparked unrest across the Middle East, the United States has rushed thousands of American troops into a region where the American presence has had been steadily declining for years.

But many of those new U.S. troops are on warships and aircraft sailing in and out of the region, deployed only temporarily. That US strategy of relying on strong forces could be tested now that Iran and Israel have broken the taboo of open military attacks on each other.

“What it means for the U.S. military is that I think we need to rethink this idea of ​​what are the necessary, sustainable (military) capabilities that we need to maintain in the region,” said Joseph Votel, a retired four-star Army general. led American forces in the Middle East.

SUSTAINABLE FOCUS

Votel and other former officials said the U.S. military’s success in downing Iranian drones and missiles last Saturday was likely helped by detailed U.S. intelligence that allowed the Pentagon to anticipate the timing and targets of Iran’s attack.

“I think the bigger concern is our ability to be responsive for an extended period of time,” Votel said.

U.S. officials say Iran does not appear to want all-out war with Israel, and Tehran downplayed Friday’s attack. Still, experts warn that the situation is unpredictable, especially as long as the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues.

U.S. Army Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, the current head of Central Command, told lawmakers last month that he had requested more troops than the Pentagon had sent to his region, which President Joe Biden’s administration said would mean a lower priority than the challenge of China, for example.

In written testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, Kurilla said a dangerous shortage of U.S. intelligence, focused on expertise and linguists, “contributes to gaps in our ability to detect and disrupt plots, limiting the freedom of movement of violent extremists organizations increases”.

While Kurilla’s comments seemed more focused on Afghanistan, some intelligence shortfalls have affected U.S. strategy since the start of the war in Gaza.

For example, a lack of details about Houthi weapons stockpiles before the Iran-backed group began attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea has made it difficult to determine the effect of months of attacks on the group’s arsenal of missiles and drones , officials said.

Still, sending more U.S. troops to the Middle East and strengthening intelligence agencies could prove difficult in the longer term, officials say.

“Troops are spread across Europe (and) those that are not are undergoing overdue maintenance cycles,” said a US official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“And Asia should be the focus.”

Another official said it is still unclear whether the U.S. military is willing to withdraw troops from Asia or Europe despite increased tensions.

Before October, the last time the United States sent thousands of troops to the Middle East was under former President Donald Trump, in a series of escalating actions that culminated in the U.S. assassination of Iran’s top general and a retaliatory missile strike by Tehran on a U.S. base in Iraq.

The first US official noted that the troop increases in 2019 and 2020 were possible because, unlike today, Washington did not have to devote as many personnel and resources to Europe – a new reality after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Mulroy said the The United States must strengthen its position in the Middle East without giving up its focus on China.

“We must deploy forces based on the current threat environment. And the current trend … is clearly a potential for broader nation-on-nation conflict in the Middle East,” Mulroy said.