Chipotle beats Panera Bread in one major way

Chipotle and Panera Bread are two of the largest and most popular chains in the growing fast-casual sector, a category of restaurants somewhere between fast food and sit-down dining. However, new data shows that Chipotle is beating its rival in the bakery-cafe chain when it comes to one key metric: sales.

About a decade ago, Panera was the bigger player in fast-casual. In 2019, it became the first fast-casual brand to earn a spot in the top 10 of research firm Technomic’s annual Top 500 Chain Restaurant Report, per Restaurant business magazine. But in the years since, Chipotle’s sales have soared, while Panera’s have stagnated somewhat.

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Chipotle has seen sales growth of a whopping 79% since 2019, while Panera’s sales are up a relatively low 6.8% over the same period, the magazine reported. The burritoslinger has been in the top 10 largest restaurant chains in the Top 500 Chain Restaurant Report for several years in a row, including rising above Domino’s and ranking ninth in 2023.

That puts Chipotle in the ranks of major players in the restaurant industry, such as McDonald’s, Starbucks and Chick-fil-A. Meanwhile, Panera has been unable to break into the top 10 in recent years.

So why are Chipotle’s sales rising while Panera struggles to keep up? Per Restaurant business magazinethere may be several factors that played a role.

First, the COVID-19 pandemic hit bakery-cafe chains like Panera hard as consumers cut back on breakfast and catering orders. While Panera has not been afraid to adopt technological advances such as ordering kiosks and app ordering, Chipotle has aggressively pushed mobile sales for takeout customers since 2020. The digital segment now accounts for 37% of Chipotle’s revenue.

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It’s also notable that Chipotle’s menu has remained relatively short and simple, while Panera has strayed from its core offering of soups, salads and sandwiches in recent years, adding options like flatbread pizzas and grain bowls. (That is, until Panera recently made a massive menu transformation that eliminated dozens of items and refocused its food selection on soups, salads, and sandwiches.)

A final factor that could help explain the difference in the trajectories between the two chains is growth. Chipotle opened about 150 new restaurants in 2020, while Panera pulled back on expansion, according to the magazine. In a new report this month, pedestrian platform Placer.ai attributed Chipotle’s continued store growth in part to a “strong” increase in customer visits over the past year.

“With the fast-casual segment expected to continue growing in the coming year – and with Chipotle’s reputation for staying ahead of the curve – the fast-casual leader is well-positioned to continue driving visits to its restaurants,” said Placer.ai.

Zoe Strowski