The Battle of Chasiv Yar. How likely is it that Russia will capture the cornerstone of Ukraine’s defense in the Donetsk region?

In time for Victory Day

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), Oleksandr Syrskyi, said the Russian army hoped to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9, when Russia celebrates the Soviet Union’s victory in World War II, The Kiev Independent reported. April 14. Syrskyi said Russia planned to break through Ukrainian defenses west of Bakhmut, reach the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal, capture Khasiv Yar and then “make further progress towards Kramatorsk,” the provisional seat of the Donetsk region.

The head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence service, Kyrylo Budanov, told German television on April 7 that Ukrainian forces were preparing for the coming enemy offensive. “Russian forces will launch their offensive at the end of May, beginning of June,” Budanov said, stressing that without the help of Western allies, the situation would be “catastrophically difficult” for Ukraine.

A Russian military analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity told Novaya Gazeta Europe that Russian forces had already come close to Khasiv Yar but had suffered heavy losses of personnel and equipment. He said most of the city’s pre-war population of 12,000 had been evacuated.

He said the Russians also targeted areas around two other cities in the Donetsk region – Avdiivka and Marinka – and around Bilohorivka in the Luhansk region, but he said the “large part” of the Russian force was focused on Khasiv Yar .

Svitan agreed with Syrskyi that the Russians clearly intended to capture the city before Victory Day. “The Kremlin has a tradition of linking military victories to important dates,” he said. Svitan said Chasiv Yar was a strategically important location; if Russian forces were to capture the city, its high location would allow them to fire on the nearby conurbation around Kramatorsk.

The success or failure of the operation depended “on how many artillery shells the Ukrainians have,” Svital said. “If the allies supply the AFU, they will be able to effectively defend their positions and hold Chasiv Yar.”

Cornerstone

Svitan called Chasiv Yar the cornerstone of Ukrainian defense in the Donetsk region. If the city were captured, he said, the front line would retreat significantly, allowing Russian forces to shell and advance on the towns of Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. If Russia were to capture these cities, it would essentially occupy the entire Donetsk region.

Regardless of whether Russia can conquer these cities in the near future, a large number of people will suffer. The area is currently home to a civilian population of more than 300,000 people, and heavy fighting will destroy the towns in which they live.

However, according to Yan Matveyev, a military analyst at the Anti-Corruption Foundation of murdered opposition politician Alexey Navalny, it will be “almost impossible for the Russians to take Chasiv Yar quickly.” Matveyev said that barring a “major disaster in the AFU defense units,” such as a depletion of their ammunition, they will not give up Chasiv Yar without a fight, recognizing its size and strategic location. “Russian forces have not yet entered the city,” Matveyev said, so “the fighting could last for months.”

Military analyst Kirill Mikhailov, a former member of the Conflict Intelligence Team, an independent organization that investigates armed conflicts, told Novaya Europe that any plan Russia had to take the city before May 9 was “too optimistic.”

“Victory Day is less than a month away and Khasiv Yar has a complex geography,” he said. He said that in this way Chasiv Yar is similar to Soledar, a town near Bakhmut that was destroyed only after five months of fighting.

Mikhailov also added that the Russians did not control any part of Khasiv Yar for the time being and that the offensive was concentrated on the Pokrovsk district, west of Avdiivka, the area around Robotyne and on Terny, near Liman.

The experts attribute Russia’s advance successes to its glide bombs, and not to its superior manpower or artillery. According to them, the glide bombs pose the greatest danger to the AFU along the entire front line.

and added that while he tended to disagree with the panicky statements of some of his Western colleagues about Ukraine’s combat capabilities, the air defense situation was critical.

“Ukraine is now focusing all its diplomatic efforts on increasing arms supplies,” Mikhailov said. He said F-16 fighter jets would “help rectify the situation” but that their effectiveness would depend on “the range of the air-to-air missiles they come with.” He added that the Russians have recently started using new types of weapons that are more difficult to intercept, such as UMPB D-30 glide bombs and Kh-69 missiles.

“The Ukrainians clearly have no way to fend off the Russian planes dropping glide bombs,” the anonymous analyst said. They explained that while the Patriot surface-to-air missile system was able to deflect the bombs, at least two Patriot launchers had already been destroyed and the remaining systems were needed in Kiev. “Plus, the ammunition they use is very expensive,” the source said, “and Ukraine clearly doesn’t have much left.” He explained that the Russians’ use of unguided heavy bombs, designed to level cities, would be impossible for Ukraine to defend against without more fighter jets.

Active defense

The anonymous analyst told Novaya Europe that the Ukrainians should have prepared a deep, multi-layered defense in the area around Khasiv Yar, knowing that the Russians would set their eyes on the city after it captured Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Mikhailov said DeepState’s Ukrainian analysts had reported substandard fortifications in the area in early April.

Svitan also pointed out that Ukraine fires only about 2,000 artillery shells per day in the region, while Russia fires closer to 10,000 shells. He said the relationship could soon get even worse.

The US House of Representatives on Saturday approved the allocation of a 61 billion dollar (57 billion euro) aid package to Ukraine, which will be submitted to the Senate on Tuesday. Both Politico and The Washington Post reported Friday that the Pentagon had already prepared a detailed aid package to Ukraine, saying that the delivery of ammunition to the Ukrainian military, once signed into law, would take less than a week.

Speed ​​is of the essence when it comes to ammunition deliveries, experts agree.

“Ukraine’s partners need to hurry up with their grenades, air defense missiles and aircraft,” the anonymous analyst said. “As things stand, there is no reason to believe that the Russian army will completely conquer the Donetsk region, but a lack of grenades will quickly lead to the AFU losing its positions. Even fortified cities cannot withstand an attack without ammunition and air defense. The situation may soon become critical.”