what can be done now?

If the skills shortage wasn’t desperate before the pandemic, it is now. Customer demand for flying continues to grow and the entire system needs to be transformed to meet net zero carbon emissions and biodiversity targets by 2050. There is plenty to do, but who will do it? Professor GRAHAM BRAITHWAITE FRAES, Director of Transport Systems at Cranfield University reports.

Firstly, aviation needs an image change and the careers on offer need to regain the attractiveness they once had. The good news is that the solution to many of the problems we face lies only in the problem: the potential for change that comes with the sustainability revolution itself.

In February, Cranfield University hosted the first Global Sustainable Aviation Exchange (GASE) workshop. (Cranfield University)

In a world looking for decarbonization leadership and action over principle, aviation has the opportunity to show what can be achieved in one of the most challenging of all industrial sectors. Aircraft operators and aviation manufacturers are – rightly or wrongly – at the forefront of the public consciousness when it comes to polluters. This means that the dramatic changes that can (and should) be made will have an equally exaggerated impact on perception. Aviation could be the role model for a new world and show what can be done against all odds. More people, especially the younger generations, will want to be among the change makers, who want to do ‘good’.

This was one of the key issues addressed at the first Global Sustainable Aviation Exchange (GSAE) workshop event held at the University of Waterloo in Canada in February 2024, focusing on skills shortages and workforce sustainability. The GSAE was put together by Cranfield University and ATAG, together with Waterloo and Khalifa Universities, to address the key challenges facing the aviation industry in meeting its 2050 climate change and biodiversity targets, with a focus on results and scale-up by 2030. GSAE is supported by ICAO, CSIRO, WTTC and IATA.

Immediate needs

It is estimated that a new civil aviation professional will be needed every four minutes, including 300,000 additional pilots, 300,000 maintenance technicians and 600,000 additional cabin crew over the next ten years (University of Glasgow).

The problem of skills shortage has two causes. One of them concerns immediate needs. It is estimated that a new civil aviation professional will be needed every four minutes, including 300,000 additional pilots, 300,000 maintenance technicians and 600,000 additional cabin crew over the next decade. Then there are the roles we don’t even know we need yet – a kind of digital aviation environment, yes, but alongside which specific sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and aircraft technologies? Electric, hydrogen and a range of hybrids.

The common thread will be greater awareness of areas such as AI, autonomous systems and carbon management. Above all, we need people with skills that can deliver immediate gains while key long-term solutions are developed. Relatively simple changes can yield immediate sustainability gains. The industry has met safety standards, as it should, by being ‘wasteful’ in terms of aircraft decommissioning and looser planning. There is no point in filling planes with SAF if they have to circle airports longer and longer to get landing slots. The use of data analytics and AI software is being used – and could be used more widely – to optimize flight paths, arrival times, infrastructure and hangar usage, and for predictive maintenance. This can have a significant impact on the environment in terms of fuel consumption and the impact of contrails. Research between MIT and Delta Airlines has demonstrated the potential for real-time tracking of areas of contrail risk to inform rerouting. Trials and simulations have shown that 70-90% of all heat-trapping contrails can be avoided through flight and altitude adjustments.

The challenge now is that data analytics, machine learning and AI are the very same skills that many other industries are also looking to leverage. Here again, aviation needs to be more active in promoting its image as a sector undergoing an exciting revolution and requiring different types of people. We need to broaden the talent pool by appealing to underrepresented groups; and creating more opportunities for work-integrated learning and combining studies with workplace learning.

More collaboration

In January 2024, Cranfield University and Dassault Systèmes opened a 3DExperience EDU Center of Excellence, focused on digital skills. (Dassault Systems’)

More than anything else, more collaboration between industry and universities will be needed through joint programs. That doesn’t mean we’re colluding; it’s important to have different ideas and perspectives. No one knows exactly what the future will look like. When IATA and the School of International Futures looked at the drivers of change for the aviation industry in 2018, few readers paid much attention to issues such as global pandemics or the threat of geopolitical instability. Yet the past five years have made it clear how important these factors can become.

Universities play a special role. Because of the level of objectivity they can bring, separate from industry, but also working closely together – which helps to keep the research ‘grounded’, and in the right ways, and ensure we remain evidence-based. University lecturers also play a big role, not only in terms of training, but also in helping to understand the bigger picture around the best ways to manage the change and transition, including the skills that will be needed.

The reality is that achieving these 2050 targets means upskilling and tapping into new talent streams over the next decade – so right now. The GSAE is important in encouraging collaboration between industry and universities, encouraging new projects and research that ensures we make the best choices – and showing exactly why aviation isn’t what it used to be. Huge technological changes are afoot and there is a determined push for sustainability — This means it is the best sector for careers that make a difference.

Professor Graham Braithwaite FRAeS



April 24, 2024