Britain sends a message to Trump, NATO and Russia with increases in defense budgets

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced on Tuesday that Britain will increase defense spending to at least 2.5% of gross domestic product by 2030. This means around $90 billion in additional spending by 2030. Sunak has also British aid of $622 million announced. allocation for Ukraine. Sunak’s statement appears to stem, at least in part, from Labor Party opposition leader Keir Starmer’s recent pledge that he would increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP “as soon as resources allow.” Britain will hold elections in January 2025 with Labor heavily favored to win. The extra money will primarily be used to plug deep black holes in existing procurement budgets, to strengthen the UK’s munitions industrial base and to develop directed energy weapons, air defense systems and anti-armor missiles. That concern about the munitions industrial base is urgent amid the dramatic shortages in artillery rounds that Europe is now experiencing amid its efforts to support Ukraine in its war against Russia. Yet these defense impulses also serve three other important political purposes. First, they indicate that Britain recognizes that a second Trump administration is likely to judge the value of allies heavily based on their willingness to invest in defense. While former President Donald Trump has stated that he would “100%” defend a NATO ally that meets the minimum spending target of 2% of the alliance’s gross domestic product (a qualification that Britain already meets), he has also called on allies to spend more than 2% of GDP on defense. Given the recent dinner between Trump and Secretary of State David Cameron at Mar-a-Lago and Sunak’s announcement to increase British aid to Ukraine, just after Congress passed its own long-delayed Ukraine aid bill, it is It is clear that Britain is trying to anticipate a possible Trump victory. The aim is to strengthen the special relationship before Trump returns to power, rather than, as would be the case with France’s Emmanuel Macron, having to limit the damage after Trump comes to power. (Macron has spent the past four years criticizing Trump.) Second, Britain also knows that any second Biden term or Trump’s return will cause the US to increasingly view China as its top security problem. Because this funding in turn also helps address the Royal Navy’s budget shortfalls, it will also support U.S. efforts to better deter Chinese aggression. Britain is fully aware that the US sees major benefits in the potential use of its Astute-class submarines, Type 45 air defense destroyers and aircraft carriers in any war with China. Finally, this announcement will positively increase pressure on other NATO members to spend more on defense. While Poland, Greece, Finland and the Baltic States also provide positive spending examples, others are taking a more cautious approach. France recently increased its defense budget and pledged more support to Ukraine. Yet Macron’s commitment to his rhetoric is an open question. At the same time, other NATO powers such as Germany, Spain and Belgium continue to neglect their defense obligations. For example, Germany talks a big game, but then bows to Russia when Moscow ramps up its threatening rhetoric.

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In short, NATO will not survive in its current form unless more NATO members are willing to shoulder a greater share of the alliance’s common burdens. Common interests are not enough. In the long term, a military alliance requires both common interests and the demonstration of those common interests through common action. By extension, today’s British action will increase NATO’s resources to deter and defeat Russia in a future war. At the margin, it will also increase China’s deterrence. Despite all other concerns, this announcement is clearly positive news.