Election interest is hitting a new low in the tight Biden-Trump race, according to NBC News poll

The share of voters who say they have a strong interest in the 2024 election has reached its lowest point in nearly two decades at this point in a presidential race, according to the latest national NBC News poll, with majorities having a negative opinion of both President Joe Biden as former President Donald Trump.

The poll also shows Biden narrowing Trump’s previous lead to just two points in a head-to-head matchup, an improvement within the margin of error compared to the previous survey, as the President edges out Trump on abortion and unionization country. while the former Republican president leads the way in terms of competence and dealing with inflation.

And it finds inflation and immigration top the list of the most important issues facing the country, as only a third of voters give Biden credit for an improving economy.

But what is also striking in the survey is how low voter interest and the independent candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. potentially derailing a stable presidential contest with more than six months until Election Day. While Trump has a two-point lead over Biden, Biden leads Trump by two points in a five-way voting test that includes Kennedy and other third-party candidates.

“I don’t think Biden has done much as president. And if Trump is elected, I have a feeling it will be the same as before Biden was elected,” said pollster Devin Fletcher, 37, of Wayne, Michigan, a Democrat who said he is still voting for Biden.

“I just don’t feel like I have a candidate that I want to vote for,” Fletcher added.

Another respondent from New Jersey, who declined to give her name and voted for Biden in 2020, said she would not vote in November.

“Our candidates are terrible. I have no interest in voting for Biden. He didn’t do anything. And I absolutely will not vote for Trump,” this voter said.

Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted this survey along with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, said that “Americans don’t agree on much these days, but nothing unites the country more than voters’ desire to to vote out these elections.”

The poll was conducted from April 12 to 16 and comes at another turbulent time in American politics, including the start of Trump’s criminal trial in New York, as well as new attacks and heightened tensions in the Middle East.

According to the poll, 64% of registered voters say they have a strong interest in the November election – registering a “9” or a 10” on a 10-point interest scale.

That’s lower than what the NBC News poll showed at the same time during the 2008 (74%), 2012 (67%), 2016 (69%) and 2020 (77%) presidential elections.

The question dates back to the 2008 election cycle. The lowest ever level of high election interest in the poll during a presidential cycle was in March 2012: 59%. But it quickly became a success during the next survey.

According to the poll, high interest rates have been both low and relatively flat for months in this election cycle.

McInturff, the Republican pollster, says high interest in the election has “always been a signal of turnout” in a presidential election.

“It makes it very difficult for us to predict turnout this far in advance of November, but all indications are that turnout will be a lower percentage of eligible voters than in 2020,” he said.

By party, current polling shows that 70% of self-identified Republicans say they have a strong interest in the upcoming elections, compared to 65% of Democrats who say this.

Independents are at 48%, while only 36% of voters aged 18 to 34 consider themselves very interested in the election.

“They just don’t have low interest rates,” McInturff said of young voters. “They are off the charts low.”

The poll also shows Trump with a narrow two-point lead over Biden among registered voters, 46% to 44% — down from Trump’s 5-point lead in January, 47% to 42%.

That move, within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, is consistent with what other national polls have shown in the race between Trump and Biden.

Trump’s biggest gains are among men (53% to 37%), white voters (54% to 37%), and white voters without a college degree (65% to 25%).

Biden’s biggest gains are among black voters (71% to 13%), women (50% to 39%) and Latinos (49% to 39%).

The poll shows the two candidates essentially tied among independents (Biden 36%, Trump 34%) and voters between the ages of 18 and 34 (Biden 44%, Trump 43%). One of the big mysteries in polling this cycle is whether young voters have abandoned Biden (as the NBC News multi-poll survey has shown), or whether Democrats have maintained their lead among this demographic.

When the ballot is expanded to five named candidates, Biden takes a two-point lead over Trump: Biden 39%, Trump 37%, independent Robert F. Kennedy 13%, Jill Stein 3% and Cornel West 2%.

Again, that result between Biden and Trump is within the poll’s margin of error.

Notably, the poll shows a higher share of Trump voters from the head-to-head who supported Kennedy in the expanded vote compared to Biden voters, unlike the results of some other surveys.

Additionally, the poll shows that 42% of registered voters approve of Biden’s overall job performance — a 5-point increase since the January NBC News poll, which showed Biden at the lowest point of his presidency.

Fifty-six percent of voters say they disapprove of the job he has done, down four points from January.

Biden’s gains in recent months have come from key parts of his 2020 base, especially among Democrats and black voters. But he continues to poll low among Latinos (40% approval), young voters (37%) and independents (36%).

“The data from this poll shows that Joe Biden is starting to gain some ground as he rebuilds his coalition starting in 2020,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster. “The question is whether he can build on this momentum and gain traction among the groups of voters who still lack support.”

But McInturff, the Republican pollster, points out that those are the only recent presidents who lost reelection had higher approval ratings than Biden’s at this point in the election cycle: George HW Bush (43%) and Donald Trump (46%).

“President Biden has a precarious hold on the presidency and is in a difficult position when it comes to his re-election,” McInturff said.

On these issues, 39% of voters say they approve of Biden’s handling of the economy (up from 36% in January); 28% approve of his approach to border security and immigration; and only 27% approve of his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas (down from 29% in January).

Voters gave Biden his highest issue rating tackling student loan debt, with 44% approving of his handling of the issue, compared to 51% who say they disapprove.

The NBC News poll asked voters to determine which candidate they thought was better on various issues and characteristics.

Biden has a 15-point lead over Trump when it comes to addressing the issue of abortion, and the president is 9 points ahead when it comes to the ability to bring the country together – although this is less than Biden’s lead of 24 points on this issue in the September 2020 NBC News poll.

Trump, meanwhile, leads the way on the ability to handle a crisis (with 4 points), on a strong performance record (with 7 points), on being competent and effective (with 11 points), on having the necessary mental and physical health to become president (with 19 points) and on dealing with inflation and the cost of living (with 22 points).

As for inflation and the cost of living, these top the list of issues in the poll, with 23% of voters saying it is the most important issue facing the country.

The other major issue regarding voters is immigration and the situation at the border (22%) – followed by threats to democracy (16%), employment and the economy (11%), abortion (6%) and health care (6%).

Additionally, 63% of voters say their household income is lagging behind the cost of living – essentially unchanged from what the poll showed in 2022 and 2023.

And 53% of voters say the country’s economy has not improved, compared to 33% who say it has improved and that Biden deserves some credit for that, and another 8% who agree the economy has improved , but doesn’t give the president credit for it.

“When I look back at the time when I had all three of my children at home, we now only have one child at home, and we spend more now than we did when we had a family of five,” he says. survey respondent Art Fales, 45, of Florida, who says he is likely to vote for Trump.

But on another question, is there an issue that is so important that you will vote for or against a candidate based solely on that? – the top answers are protecting democracy and constitutional rights (28%), immigration and border security (20%) and abortion (19%).

30% of Democrats, 29% of young voters and 27% of women say they only vote on abortion.

“I have a right to what I do with my body,” said poll respondent Amanda Willis, 28, of Louisiana, who said she is voting for Biden. “And I don’t believe other people should have the opportunity to determine that.”

• With Trump’s first criminal trial underway, 50% of voters say the former president is being held to the same standards as anyone else when it comes to his many legal challenges. That compares to 43% who believe they have been unfairly targeted in these processes.
• 52% of voters have an unfavorable view of Biden, while 53% share the same view of Trump.
• And Democrats and Republicans are essentially tied by congressional preference: 47% of voters prefer Republicans to control Congress and 46% want Democrats to be in charge. Republicans had a four-point lead on this issue in January.

The NBC News poll was conducted April 12-16 among 1,000 registered voters nationwide — 891 of whom were contacted by cell phone — and the survey has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.