The ‘tragedy’ of US policy towards Israel

The Biden administration appears to have at least temporarily succeeded in preventing Iran’s direct attack on Israel from escalating into an uncontrolled war. The White House conveyed the message to Israel through various channels that any attack on Iran must be “proportionate,” also signaling to the Netanyahu government that US support for Israel would be limited to defense. With the help of the United States, the United Kingdom and Jordan, the Iranian UAVs and missiles were intercepted before they reached Israeli airspace, making the Iron Dome’s job relatively easier. However, Iran’s low intensity and controlled attack with cheap weapons showed that in a more ‘real’ war Israel’s task would be far from easy. The attack, which brought the urgency of Israel’s defense to the forefront, appears to pave the way for a vote on a long-delayed aid package for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan in the House of Representatives. The fact that the attack on Israel allowed US foreign aid to reach the approval stage shows how much the issues that bring Republicans and Democrats together have diminished.

The package that was previously on the shelf is back on the agenda

A $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan had previously passed the Senate, but had yet to be considered in the House of Representatives due to political dynamics. Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson had refused to consider foreign aid unless strict measures were taken on border security and immigration, as demanded by the far-right and Trumpist factions within the Republican Party. Despite Biden’s willingness to compromise on this issue, no legal action could be taken regarding the refugee crisis at the Mexican border, which Trump continually highlighted during elections. The Trumpists, who rejected a negotiated solution with the government, tried to pressure Biden by demanding the withdrawal of his executive orders on borders and immigration. The uncompromising attitude of the far-right Republicans made it impossible to take steps on immigration or foreign aid.

The far-right Republican group’s success in blocking the legislative process and their justification of this under Trump’s “America First” agenda brought Mike Johnson closer to Trump. Johnson, who represents the far right of the Republican Party and has been threatened with expulsion by politicians close to Trump such as Marjorie Taylor Greene, visited Trump at his Florida home in an effort to drum up support for foreign aid. Johnson, who was praised by Trump for doing a “great job,” announced he would vote on the foreign aid package at the end of this week. Before Iran’s attack, Johnson appeared to be aligned with his party’s far-right wing on foreign aid, but he took action despite the risk of being targeted. Naturally, the influence of the pro-Israel lobby in Washington is significant, as no political leader in Washington wants to be accused of not supporting Israel’s defense.

Netanyahu wins if he raises the stakes

Iran’s direct attack, which marked a new phase in the regional struggle in the Middle East, showed that Israel would have difficulty defending itself alone in a full-scale war. Although Netanyahu claimed that retaliation against Iran was his decision alone, he did so openly to appear politically strong. It remains to be seen to what extent Netanyahu will heed the Biden administration’s warnings not to view defending against Iran as a victory and not to engage in a broader war. Netanyahu, who has committed numerous violations of international law, announced that new settlements would be allowed in Gaza. While Netanyahu reserves the “right to respond” to Iran’s attack, he is also sending a message that he will not back down from opening Gaza to settlements, as he did with the West Bank.

Netanyahu, who appears to be happy that he has changed the image of Israel from one of ethnic cleansing and genocide in Gaza to that of a “victim”, is likely not only to escape mounting criticism in the US Congress, but also to be rewarded be done with foreign aid. Thanks to Iran’s response to its attack on Iranian generals in Syria, which not only changed the agenda, but also earned Biden’s full support and prompted Republicans to take action to approve the foreign aid package. Netanyahu, who is rewarded when he raises the stakes, is once again demonstrating his mastery of manipulating American politics. The Biden administration, while not particularly concerned about reducing the Gaza issue to a debate about humanitarian aid flows rather than Israel’s defense against Iran, is not particularly worried.

Iran’s attack on Israel, which mobilized Republicans to delay the foreign aid package, appears to pave the way for Biden’s aid request to Ukraine to be granted. Ukrainian leader Zelensky’s warnings that they would lose the war if aid did not arrive and the increased urgency of Israel’s defense prompted Congress to act. However, it is a serious handicap for the Biden administration, which claims to have global leadership and defend its allies, to need a softening of the Trumpist opposition. The power of the Israeli issue to bring both parties together may make this aid package successful, but it would not be an exaggeration to call the transformation of the Israeli issue into the sole unifying factor of American politics a tragedy.