The flu virus will likely cause the next pandemic, experts warn

The prediction comes from new research presented at the ESCMID Global Congress in Barcelona, ​​Spain, which kicks off later this week.

The VACCELERATE Consortium research involved infectious disease experts, including Irish Professor Sam McConkey from Beaumont Hospital in Dublin, who were asked to rank pathogens in order of their pandemic potential.

The flu was considered the virus with the highest pandemic risk, with 57 percent ranking it number one, and a further 17 percent naming it as the second most likely threat.

Ireland has suffered major winter outbreaks over the past two seasons, leading to a rise in hospital admissions and 188 deaths since the end of last year.

This winter’s outbreak has now subsided, although a few hundred cases are still being reported each week.

Professor McConkey said: “In my view, we in Ireland and the EU need to prepare for a very wide range of new infectious pathogens that could come our way, in some cases suddenly.

“There is a lot of uncertainty as to which will come when. Although the flu has shown that it can cause pandemics and in my opinion is most likely, it could be SARS-CoV3, a food poisoning pathogen, viral hemorrhagic fever, drug-resistant Gram-negative bacilli, an arbovirus, a malicious cyber attack or a computer virus that then threatens. . We need to build robust and resilient systems.”

Dr. Jon Salmanton-García, University of Cologne, together with colleagues ranked the other most likely candidates to cause the next pandemic.

They include Disease

SARS-CoV-2, which causes Covid-19, ranked third when it came to the number one response, placing it at 8%, while 16% voted it second.

The original SARS-CoV virus, which circulated more than two decades ago in 2002-2003, was ranked number one by 2% of disease experts, and second by 8%.

The Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHF virus) and the Ebola virus were tied for fifth place.

The World Health Organization has outlined a comprehensive research and development blueprint for action to prevent epidemics, focusing on major infectious diseases that pose significant threats to public health.

These diseases were selected after a rigorous evaluation, taking into account factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity and their evolutionary potential.

Experts can rank up to fourteen pathogens in order of their perceived risk: the thirteen named pathogens plus Disease X.

Dr. Salmanton-García added: “Every winter we have flu season. You could say this means there are small pandemics every winter.

“They are more or less controlled because the different strains are not virulent enough. Yet the strains involved change every season, which is why we can get the flu several times in our lives and the vaccines change from year to year.

“In the event that a new strain becomes more virulent, this control may be lost.”

The world is now much better prepared for the Covid-19 pandemic, he added.