Judge Markandey Katju: The Historical Significance of the 2024 Indian Elections

By Judge Markandey Katju–

(Judge Markandey Katju is a former Judge of the Supreme Court of India and former Chairman of the Press Council of India. The views expressed are his own)

The ongoing Indian parliamentary election is ostensibly just another election, but it cannot be argued that it has profound historical significance; not just for India, but for the entire world. Let me explain.

The goal of the Indian people should be to transform their region into a powerful industrial giant, like the US or China, with citizens enjoying a high standard of living. This can only be achieved after a long struggle led by modern-minded leaders; such as Mustafa Kemal of Turkey in the 1920s, or the leaders of Japan after the Meiji Restoration of 1868.

For the past decade, India has been in the grip of a right-wing theocratic government led by the Hindu-oriented BJP. It has polarized Indian society religiously to gain votes. The BJP has a clear majority in the Lok Sabha (the lower house of the Indian Parliament), with 303 of the total 545 seats. With its alliance partners, the total rises to a mighty 353 seats.

The central government, with the help of its security and intelligence services, could put down any conflict before it could become a threat. Therefore, a struggle of powerful people could not arise for the emancipation of India from poverty, unemployment, hunger, lack of healthcare, and so on, and to make India a modern, highly industrialized state.

The situation has now changed and the Modi charisma has disappeared. Some opinion polls suggest that the BJP’s seats could decline. Others predict that while the NDA alliance has a slim majority in the House of Representatives, the BJP on its own will not. Some have indicated that the opposition NDA alliance and INDIA alliance will have a maximum of 250 seats each, while the BJP will win only 210-220 seats. Some even say there is an anti-Modi wave underway.

The correct picture will of course emerge on June 4, when the results are announced. However, there is no doubt that even if Modi and the BJP return to power, they will be significantly weaker than before.

This could lay the foundation for the emergence of a people’s struggle led by patriotically modern-minded leaders in India. This struggle will be long and arduous, probably lasting ten to fifteen years, during which enormous sacrifices will have to be made before success can be tasted.

In itself, the current elections will not have an immediate impact on the lives of the people, but their significance lies in the fact that the process of India’s transformation into a modern, highly industrialized state will have begun through the struggle of a powerful people.

Once India becomes a highly industrialized giant, the global scenario will change (as Napoleon said about China).